The paper advances an original artificial intelligence-based mechanism for specific economic predictions. The aim is to forecast the exchange rate of euro versus the Romanian currency using a large set of financial data. The possible influence of specific forecasting indicators (such as Sibiu...

The paper advances an original artificial intelligence-based mechanism for specific economic predictions. The time series under discussion are non-stationary; therefore the distribution of the time series changes over time. The algorithm establishes how a viable structure of an artificial neural...

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with families of models and not just with a couple of forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models...

The emerging economy is playing an important role in the global market. Market potential of emerging markets is also a determinant in a wide range of market decisions of the global managers. For the reason that the market potential consists of a number of different factors across different...

Real convergence is an essential objective of Romania’s integration into the EU. Bridging the development gaps between Romania and the EU as soon as possible cannot be achieved exclusively through market forces, since they rather tend to cause divergence and polarization. For this purpose,...

In the last decade, a number of empirical studies tried to highlight a strong correlation among foreign trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth. Moreover, the recent crisis affecting firstly the GDP growth had also a negative impact on foreign trade and on FDI inflow. Today, there...

This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary fundamentals. I used robust regression approach for constructing robust neural models less sensitive to contamination with outliers and I studied its predictability on 1 to 6-month...

Based on the 2012 Version of the Romanian Macromodel, the first section of this paper discusses the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2014. The previous simulations were revised taking into account the changes in the internal and external socio-economic conjuncture or in the available...

This study investigates the behavior of US stock price–dividend relationships over the period 1871:01 to 2012:03 using a two-regime Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root developed by Caner and Hansen (2001), which allows for simultaneously testing nonlinearity...