Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with families of models and not just with a couple of forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

The paper attempts to study the influences of the quarterly changes in the international oil price upon certain macroeconomic indicators and upon the GDP, using the principal components analysis. It also analyzes the indirect impact of a change in oil prices – through all the other indicators...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the expenditures decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and...

Competitiveness and corruption are now - more than ever before - two real challenges for Romania on its way to the European integration. The theoretical approaches to those concepts did not get to a unanimous and happy end and the real figures that evaluate them are not at all pleasing for...

Interdependencies – in time and in space – between (the most) different phenomena and processes, as well as entities (at global – national – local/regional – firm level) – characterize all the domains and levels of the society and humankind. The main idea and the general purpose of...

The study comprises previsional estimates for the Romanian economy in 2001 using the "Dobrescu" macromodel of the Romanian transition economy. The main economic indicators are monthly estimated for 2001 simulating a Rational Scenario and a Quasi-Lax Scenario. The indicators are: gross domestic...

In the last years it seemed that the Romanian economy leading up to access to the EU was going to enter a new stage, evolving more and more in line with the standard theory. Based on more accurate statistical data for the last years, we try to verify some hypotheses used in the standard economic...

There is a relationship between predictability and complexity. The problem of evaluating the complexity of the macroeconomic phenomenon can be reduced to decomposition into its principal components (which may have, in their turn, a certain degree of complexity) and to identify its common sources...