This article analyzes recent volatility spillovers in the United States from crude oil using futures prices. Crude oil spillovers to both corn and ethanol markets are somewhat similar in timing and magnitude, but moderately stronger to the ethanol market. The shares of corn and ethanol price...

Estimates of country-level loan default distributions are developed and used in a loan guarantee model to value the contingent liability of USDA's General Sales Manager (GSM) export credit guarantee portfolio. The results quantify the relationship between increasing guarantee coverage and the...

The accuracy of producers' subjective probability beliefs is examined through a survey of large cash-grain farmers in Illinois. Findings reveal that their subjective probability beliefs about important weather variables are systematically mis-calibrated. The nature and extent of differences...

This study examines the actuarial implications of the loss cost ratio (LCR) ratemaking methodology employed by the Risk Management Agency as a component of base rates for U.S. crop insurance programs, and identifies specific conditions required for the LCR methodology to result in unbiased rates...