In this paper, we propose a model of income dynamics which takes account of mobility both within and between jobs. The model is a hybrid of the mover-stayer model of income dynamics and a geometric random walk. In any period, individuals face a discrete probability of 'moving', in which case...

This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The proposed tests are based...

Recursive-weight forecast combination is often found to an ineffective method of improving point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain instabilities. We examine the effectiveness of this strategy for forecast densities using (many) vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive (AR)...

Variables are often measured subject to error, whether they are collected as part of an experiment or by sample surveys. A consequence of this is that there will be different estimates of the same variable, or, more generally, linear restrictions which the observations should satisfy but fail...