We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In...

New strategies for the implementation of maximum likelihood estimation of nonlinear time series models are suggested. They make use of recent work on the EM algorithm and iterative simulation techniques. The estimation procedures are applied to the problem of fitting stochastic variance models...

This paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realized variance (RV)-that is, sums of M squared returns. This econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high-frequency financial return data. When the underlying process is a...

This paper studies in some detail a class of high-frequency-based volatility (HEAVY) models. These models are direct models of daily asset return volatility based on realised measures constructed from high-frequency data. Our analysis identifies that the models have momentum and mean reversion...

SUMMARY We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on factor loadings by using cubic spline functions. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this purpose. The methodology is illustrated by...

SUMMARY We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential...