This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifications for business cycle dynamics. In an application to US GDP, it is found that inferences about the nature of the trend in output are not robust to changes in the specification for short-run...

We provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks induced by unpredictable changes to model parameters. Bayesian methods of learning and model comparison are used to derive a predictive density that takes into account the possibility that a break will occur...

Although the basic structure of logit-mixture models is well understood, important identification and normalization issues often get overlooked. This paper addresses issues related to the identification of parameters in logit-mixture models containing normally distributed error components...

SUMMARY We provide the first empirical application of a new approach proposed by Lee (Journal of Econometrics 2007; <b>140</b>(2), 333–374) to estimate peer effects in a linear‐in‐means model when individuals interact in groups. Assumingsufficient group size variation, this approach allows to control...