This paper considers the 'real-time' forecast performance of the Federal Reserve staff, time-series models, and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model-the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (Edo) model. We evaluate forecast performance using...

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the US economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies uncertainty about the...