In this paper, we use index number theory to decompose changes in total interest rate due to changes in the interest rate component and the weight component. We discuss the optimal calculation of a binary index using axiomatic index number theory. Based on this theory we compare alternative...

We evaluate the forecasting performance of four competing models for short-term macroeconomic forecasting: the traditional VAR, small scale Bayesian VAR, Factor Augmented VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models. Using Armenian quarterly actual macroeconomic time series from 1996Q1 –...