We consider the properties of weighted linear combinations of prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the log predictive scoring rule. Although exactly one model has limiting posterior probability, an optimal linear combination typically includes several models with positive weights....

We consider a method for producing multivariate density forecasts that satisfy moment restrictions implied by economic theory, such as Euler conditions. The method starts from a base forecast that might not satisfy the theoretical restrictions and forces it to satisfy the moment conditions using...

We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. Particularly desirable for econometric applications are closed-form expressions for antiderivatives (e.g., the cumulative density function). We illustrate the usefulness of...

We develop a general framework for analyzing the usefulness of imposing parameter restrictions on a forecasting model. We propose a measure of the usefulness of the restrictions that depends on the forecaster's loss function and that could be time varying. We show how to conduct inference about...