The use of a conditionally unbiased, but imperfect, volatility proxy can lead to undesirable outcomes in standard methods for comparing conditional variance forecasts. We motivate our study with analytical results on the distortions caused by some widely used loss functions, when used with...

This paper presents new methods for comparing the accuracy of estimators of the quadratic variation of a price process. I provide conditions under which the relative accuracy of competing estimators can be consistently estimated (as T--[infinity]), and show that forecast evaluation tests may be...

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps...