We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model to estimate rating migration matrices and default probabilities using the reinforced urn processes (RUP) introduced in Muliere et al. (2000). The estimated default probability becomes our prior information in a parametric model for the prediction of the...

We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features observed in the data, in particular, the clustering of high default...

This paper introduces the concept of risk parameter in conditional volatility models of the form ϵt=σt(θ0)ηt and develops statistical procedures to estimate this parameter. For a given risk measure r, the risk parameter is expressed as a function of the volatility coefficients θ0 and the...

This paper presents a variety of tests of volatility spillover that are robust to heavy tails generated by large errors or GARCH-type feedback. The tests are couched in a general conditional heteroskedasticity framework with idiosyncratic shocks that are only required to have a finite variance...

This paper considers a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for a linear panel data model with time and individual fixed effects, where the disturbances have dynamic and spatial correlations which might be spatially stable or unstable. We first consider both separable and nonseparable...

We develop new methods for the estimation of time-varying risk-neutral jump tails in asset returns. In contrast to existing procedures based on tightly parameterized models, our approach imposes much fewer structural assumptions, relying on extreme-value theory approximations together with...

Frontier estimation appears in productivity analysis. Firm’s performance is measured by the distance between its output and an optimal production frontier. Frontier estimation becomes difficult if outputs are measured with noise and most approaches rely on restrictive parametric assumptions....

This paper develops a nonlinear spatial autoregressive model. Of particular interest is a structural interaction model for share data. We consider possible instrumental variable (IV) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for this model, and analyze asymptotic properties of the IV and MLE based...

We present a new jackknife estimator for instrumental variable inference with unknown heteroskedasticity. It weighs observations such that many-instruments consistency is guaranteed while the signal component in the data is maintained. We show that this results in a smaller signal component in...

A dynamic panel data model is considered that contains possibly stochastic individual components and a common stochastic time trend that allows for stationary and nonstationary long memory and general parametric short memory. We propose four different ways of coping with the individual effects...