I present a simple model where forecasting confidence affects aggregate demand. It is shown that this model has similar stability properties, under statistical and evolutionary learning, as a model without a confidence affect. From this setup, I introduce “Expectational Business Cycles”...

This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of 22 OECD countries for the 1970–2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating...

This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents may produce heterogeneous expectations because of informational frictions and differing levels of a capacity to process information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this framework: those...

This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify...

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...

The aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABMs) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its “phase diagram” in the space of parameters. Our first...

This paper provides a closed-form solution for the price-dividend ratio in a standard asset pricing model with stochastic volatility. The growth rate of the endowment is a first-order Gaussian autoregression, while the stochastic volatility innovations can be drawn from any distribution for...

Addressing issues of social diversity, we introduce a model of housing transactions between agents who are heterogeneous in their willingness to pay. A key assumption is that agents' preferences for a location depend on both an intrinsic attractiveness and on the social characteristics of the...

The paper studies the dynamics of housing prices in a pure exchange overlapping generations framework a la Samuelson (1958) and Gale (1973), which is extended to include housing as a utility-yielding durable good and a credit sector. We completely characterize the equilibrium dynamics, which...

We examine the stability under learning (E-stability) of sunspot equilibria in non-convex real business cycle models. The production technology is Cobb–Douglas with externalities generated by factor inputs. We establish that, with a general utility function, the well-known Benhabib–Farmer...