Under the assumption that the balance of payments must satisfy the expected intertemporal balance, this paper seeks to establish a pre-condition for a crisis of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Proposing that non-stationarity of the growth rate of assets is evidence of a violation of expected...

The ongoing financial globalization has instigated growing concerns on the issue of benefits and costs from free international capital mobility. Past experiences in the emerging market countries indicate that foreign capital inflows could cause persistent current account deficits and lead to...