This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios. The methodology is based on the disaggregated gravity equation, which is applied to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member...

Traditional CGE models with Armington assumption fail to capture the extensive margin of trade, thereby underestimate the trade and welfare effects of trade opening. To address this problem, this paper introduces the Melitz (2003) theoretical framework with firm heterogeneity and fixed exporting...

East Asia has rapidly become the third centre of gravity for global economic activity. North America is relatively well integrated with East Asia, but Europe is not. This paper explores the extent to which economic growth and trade poli - cy developments over the next decade will strengthen...

This paper analyses the impacts of Vietnam's ASEAN Free Trade Area(AFTA) accession using a multi-region and muti-sector general equilibrium model. The static benefits of AFTA accession are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN makets would be small, and the...

This paper analyzes the impact of firm networks on Japan’s national border effect. We estimate gravity equations using data on Japan’s international and interregional trade in four machinery industries (electrical, general, precision and transportation machinery). The machinery sector is the...

The economic implications and the income distribution effects of the customs union (CU) between Turkey and the European Union (EU) have been studied by applying a general equilibrium model to the Turkish economy under alter - native hypotheses for the labour market. The numerical results show...

In this paper we use a gravity model in order to estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Greece and nine Balkan countries. We adopt a two stage approach. At the first stage the coefficients of the gravity model for the implemented trade between Greece and thirty trade partners...

The Barcelona process is an ongoing process and its first economic results are still insignificant. This study had two objectives. The first is to provide a global assessment of its impacts on the three North African countries that have already became members of this process, namely Tunisia,...

This study estimates the trade potential for India using an augmented Gravity model and then attempts to determine the importance of trade remedies. Based on the panel data, this Gravity model is the first-ever attempt to estimate India’s trade potential in the pre- and post- global economic...

If South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are to become constructively engaged in the next attempt by World Trade Organization (WTO) members to liberalize trade multilaterally, they need to be convinced that there will be sufficient gains from trade reform to warrant the inevitable costs of...