Purpose: The literature mostly investigates the impact of trade and financial integration on business cycle synchronization. The author differs by focusing on the real effective exchange rate as the target variable in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region. In particular, the...

Purpose: This study is concerned with evaluating the Federal Reserve forecasts of light motor vehicle sales. The goal is to assess accuracy gains from using consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations about future business conditions derived from the long-running Michigan Surveys of...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to focus on the relationship between attitudinal data from the long-running Michigan Surveys of Consumers and US real GDP growth. One survey question asks, “Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?” with the...

Purpose – This study aims to both test the asymmetric information hypothesis and explore the factors influencing the one‐ through four‐quarter‐ahead Federal Reserve inflation forecasts for 1983‐2002. Design/methodology/approach – Encompassing tests are used to examine the asymmetric...

Purpose – This study is motivated by the view that Democrats are concerned with reducing unemployment in the short‐run, while Republicans are concerned with keeping inflation low to promote economic stability and growth. The purpose of this paper is to ask whether the Federal Reserve...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate four possible asymmetries in US aggregate consumption and its major components (durables, non-durables, and services) for the period 1990-2013. Understanding the asymmetric behavior of the components is important since the impact of...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to take a forecasting approach to examine the relationship between the US birth rate, marriage rate, and economic conditions (measured by both realized unemployment and expected unemployment). The expectation data come from the Michigan Surveys of...

Purpose – This study is motivated by the view that Democrats are concerned with reducing unemployment in the short-run, while Republicans are concerned with keeping inflation low to promote economic stability and growth. The purpose of this paper is to ask whether the Federal Reserve forecasts...

Purpose – This study aims to both test the asymmetric information hypothesis and explore the factors influencing the one- through four-quarter-ahead Federal Reserve inflation forecasts for 1983-2002. Design/methodology/approach – Encompassing tests are used to examine the asymmetric...