This study evaluates the accuracy of the private-sector forecasts of inflation and growth in industrial production collected by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). In addition to examining directional accuracy, we utilize as benchmarks both naïve and univariate autoregressive moving-average...

Utilizing recent techniques with comparable private forecasts as benchmarks, we test the rationality of the Federal Reserve forecasts of growth under flexible loss. Our findings for 1984–2006 indicate that these forecasts are rational (efficient) and directionally accurate under symmetric loss...

In investigating the causal relation between government revenue and spending, our empirical results support the tax-and-spend hypothesis for Egypt and the fiscal synchronization hypothesis for Jordan. Breaking away from these historical trends is essential for both countries to eliminate the...