Although there is an extensive literature that evaluates long-run stock returns, the statistical tests that are commonly used are misspecified when event firms share common characteristics. For example, industry clustering or overlapping returns in the sample contribute to test misspecification....

We use an intensity-based framework to study the relation between macroeconomic fundamentals and cycles in defaults and rating activity. Using Standard and Poor's U.S. corporate rating transition and default data over the period 1980-2005, we directly estimate the default and rating cycle from...