type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment...</p>

This paper explores the nature of default arrival and recovery implicit in the term structures of sovereign "CDS" spreads. We argue that term structures of spreads reveal not only the arrival rates of credit events <formula format="inline"><file name="jofi_1399_mu1.gif" type="gif" /></formula>, but also the loss rates given credit events. Applying our framework to Mexico,...

We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar-denominated bonds. We consider the determinants of...

This paper explores the structural differences and relative goodness-of-fits of affine term structure models (ATSMs). Within the family of ATSMs there is a trade-off between flexibility in modeling the conditional correlations and volatilities of the risk factors. This trade-off is formalized by...

type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>To understand which short-term debt markets experienced “runs” during the financial crisis, we analyze a novel data set of repurchase agreements (repo), that is, loans between nonbank cash lenders and dealer banks collateralized with securities. Consistent with a run,...</p>

This paper documents that hedge funds did not exert a correcting force on stock prices during the technology bubble. Instead, they were heavily invested in technology stocks. This does not seem to be the result of unawareness of the bubble: Hedge funds captured the upturn, but, by reducing their...