The acceleration of the U.S. productivity growth in the late 1990s suggests a significant advance in technological innovation, making the perceived probability of entering a "new economy" ever increasing. Based on macroeconomic data, we identify a Bayesian investor's belief evolution when facing...

Does the "smart money" effect documented by <link rid="b11">Gruber (1996)</link> and <link rid="b20">Zheng (1999)</link> reflect fund selection ability of mutual fund investors? We examine the finding that investors are able to predict mutual fund performance and invest accordingly. We show that the smart money effect is explained by the...