Nasser's behavior in the 1967 Middle East crisis has been variously explained in terms of decision-making deficiencies, personality-related pathologies, and uncontrolled escalation. This paper argues that such accounts are unsatisfactory. They are biased by their use of backward induction, which...

Peace initiatives to resolve enduring rivalries are launched in a two-level setting, where foreign policy imperatives interact with domestic imperatives. Public opinion, the support and mobilization of which is required for sustaining an extended conflict, plays a critical role in its...

A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes...