Given confidentiality issues and the proprietary nature of the underlying data, outsiders rarely have the opportunity to test the impetus, impact, and efficacy of employee discipline in the workplace. However, the transparency of NBA basketball officiating allows for such an inquiry, as...

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government even though the historical accuracy and reliability is questionable. We design a market for economic derivatives that aggregates macro-economic information. The market generated forecasts compare well to the Bloomberg-...

We present a theoretical model that enables to predict population distribution according to fertility and survival rates for each age group. Using World Bank data, we estimated the relation between fertility rate of change and survival probabilities. Our findings show that fertility rate of...

Markets are a strong instrument for aggregating dispersed information, yet there are flaws. Markets are too complex for some users, they fail to capture massive amounts of their users’ relevant information, and they suffer from some individual-level biases. Based on recent research in polling...

In this paper, we calculated the average daily return and the Betas of Israeli stocks for the period April 1st 2009 – April 1st 2010. The correlation coefficient between return and Beta is 0.47. Although we find that the econometric relation between return and Beta is statistically...

Most prediction markets focus on events with a short time horizon such as forthcoming elections. Contracts are typically traded for periods measured in weeks, but rarely exceeding a year. There is great interest in using prediction markets for events with a long time horizon such as climate...

Cointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks....

This paper tests the explanatory power of an online Prediction market on the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi as Libya’s leader during the uprising in 2011. Based on the theory of efficient markets and collective intelligence, it employs a GARCH time-series analysis and an event study of Intrade...

We examine 330,857 trades of prediction market contracts, the values of which are based on against-the-spread outcomes of NFL games, and find the presence of a significant reverse favourite-longshot bias. Surprisingly, the timing of this bias is identical to that observed in traditional...