Cointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks....

We examine 330,857 trades of prediction market contracts, the values of which are based on against-the-spread outcomes of NFL games, and find the presence of a significant reverse favourite-longshot bias. Surprisingly, the timing of this bias is identical to that observed in traditional...

Case studies examine the extent to which insider trades in financial markets are a reflection of publicly-based forecasts based on (1) candlestick charts and (2) adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time processes depicted in such charts. ADM accommodates both gradual Darwinian-type...

This study examines the pre-game and within-game price movements of contracts listed on Tradesports to determine whether relevant information is quickly and accurately embedded into asset prices. Each contract represents a totals (over/under) bet on an NFL game. In traditional casino-style...

Wolfers (2006) suggests that NCAA basketball is marred by widespread gambling corruption. We examine totals wagers in a variety of sports betting markets to determine whether observed outcomes are symmetric around closing lines, an important assumption Wolfers makes in his analysis. Our results...