Case studies examine the extent to which insider trades in financial markets are a reflection of publicly-based forecasts based on (1) candlestick charts and (2) adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time processes depicted in such charts. ADM accommodates both gradual Darwinian-type...

Cointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks....