Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-Chuan; Lin, Jih-wen; Lin, Hsin-yi - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 3, pp. 1-26
This paper devises a methodology to compare the accuracy of prediction markets and polls. The data of the Exchange of Future Events (xFuture) for Taiwan’s 2006 mayoral elections and 2008 presidential election show that the prediction markets outperform the opinion polls in various indices of...
