We show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets, as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with GDP growth via wrong identifications and an omitted variable bias, thus overstating episodes of...

We apply meta regression analysis to a unique data set of 104 studies on multiplier effects with 1069 reported multipliers in order to derive stylized facts and to quantify the differing effectiveness of the composition of fiscal impulses, adjusted for the interference of study-design...

Since the fiscal expansion during the Great Recession 2008-2009 and the current European consolidation and austerity measures, the analysis of fiscal multiplier effects is back on the scientific agenda. The number of empirical studies is growing fast, tackling the issue with manifold model...

On the one hand, every official document about fiscal policy in Spain, and most orthodox academic papers argue that Spain has no "fiscal space" and that it should apply resolute actions to assure budget consolidation. On the other hand, Spain also had the second highest unemployment rate in the...

Using the bottom-up approach of Romer and Romer (2010), we construct a rich narrative dataset of net-revenue fiscal shocks for Germany by reconstructing and extending the tax shock series of Hayo and Uhl (2014) and coding a shock series for social security contributions, benefits and transfers....

We analyze whether there are negative (positive) long-term effects of austerity measures (stimulus measures) on potential output growth. Based on the approach of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) and Fatás and Summers (2016) and using a novel dataset of narratively identified fiscal policy shocks, we...

We analyze whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy suffers a downturn. For that purpose, we conduct a meta-regression analysis on a unique data set of 98 empirical studies with more than 1800 observations on multiplier effects and control for regime...

We simulate the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation between 2011 and 2013 by employing two DSGE models used by the ECB and the European Commission, respectively. The cumulative multiplier amounts to 0.7 and 1.0 in the baseline, but increases to 1.3 with a reasonably calibrated financial accelerator...