This paper develops two nonlinear cointegration models - a VECM with structural shift and a threshold cointegration model - applied to carbon spot and futures prices. The results extend the previous findings by Chevallier (2010), who studied this topic with a linear VECM. First, in the VECM with...

This paper analyzes jointly the time series of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) in a Markov regime-switching environment. The purpose consists in capturing the interactions between the two time series - which have been highlighted in previous literature...

EUAs are European Union Allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), while Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) arise from the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol. These emissions assets attract an increasing attention among brokers, investors and operators on...

This article develops a forecasting exercise of the volatility of EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices (modeled after an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)) using two dynamic factors as exogenous regressors that were extracted from a Factor Augmented VAR model (Bernanke et al. (2005)). The dataset...

This article documents the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European climate exchange (ECX), which is valid under the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). Realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and...

By employing the modified net buying pressure as a measure of informed option trading, this study tested whether option trading around quarterly earnings announcements is either directionally motivated and/or volatility motivated. We found evidence that is consistent with the idea that option...

This paper analyzes the conditional correlations between the stock market returns of countries that are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The innovative aspects of the paper consist of focusing on three volatility indices: the oil (OVX), gold (GVZ), and S&P500 (VIX) markets...

The informed options trading hypothesis posits that option prices lead stock prices. In this paper, we extended the research on this hypothesis to open-market share repurchases. Empirical tests showed that the implied volatility spread was not significantly related to buy-and-hold abnormal stock...