We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts...

This study explores the dependency structure of S&P 500 survivor stocks. Using a hand-collected sample of stocks that survived in the S&P 500 since March 1957, we employ rescaled/range analysis to investigate survivors. First, we find nonlinearities in the return processes of survivor stocks due...

Machine learning (ML) is a novel method that has applications in asset pricing and that fits well within the problem of measurement in economics. Unlike econometrics, ML models are not designed for parameter estimation and inference, but similar to econometrics, they address, and may be better...

In this paper, we analysed the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigated the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data from...

We examine the impact of oil price and oil price volatility on US illiquidity premiums (return on illiquid-minus-liquid stocks), using the US Oil Fund options implied volatility OVX index. We use daily data from 2007 to 2018, taking into account the structural break in June 2009 and controlling...

This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market-changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing...

We highlight herding of investors as one major risk factor that is typically ignored in statistical approaches to portfolio modelling and risk management. Our survey focuses on smart-beta investing where such methods and investor herding seem particularly relevant but its negative effects have...

By reinterpreting the calibration of structural models, a reassessment of the importance of the input variables is undertaken. The analysis shows that volatility is the key parameter to any calibration exercise, by several orders of magnitude. To maximize the sensitivity to volatility, a simple...

The 2008 credit crisis changed the manner in which derivative trades are conducted. One of these changes is the posting of collateral in a trade to mitigate the counterparty credit risk. Another is the realization that banks are not risk-free and, as a result, cannot borrow at the risk-free rate...

This paper applies the mean-variance portfolio optimization (PO) approach and the stochastic dominance (SD) test to examine preferences for international diversification versus domestic diversification from American investors’ viewpoints. Our PO results imply that the domestic diversification...