We examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper's first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino) to demonstrate the existence...

Hammond (1996) argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM) can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (C\&C) and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to understand the differences between these two...

By manipulating the scale in graphs, this study demonstrated a new evaluation bias caused by attribute salience in graphical representations. That is, (de)compressing the graph axis scale changed the relative distance with respect to the options of a given attribute and thus changed the salience...

We examine how almost winning in roulette affects subsequent betting behavior. Our main finding is heterogeneity in gambler behavior with some gamblers less likely to bet on numbers that were near misses on the prior spin and other gamblers more likely to bet on near miss numbers. Using a unique...

In this introduction to the special issue on methodology, we provide background on its original motivation and a systematic overview of the contributions. The latter are discussed with correspondence to the phase of the scientific process they (most strongly) refer to: Theory construction,...

How many judgment and decision making (JDM) researchers have not claimed to be building on Herbert Simon's work? We identify two of Simon's goals for JDM research: He sought to understand people's decision processes---the descriptive goal---and studied whether the same processes lead to good...

The article shows that when people consider differentiated goods or services that differ in price and quality, they exhibit a decision-making bias of ``relative thinking'': relative price differences affect them even when economic theory suggests that only absolute price differences matter. This...

Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause. In three experiments, overprecision was significantly reduced by forcing participants to consider all possible outcomes of an event....