During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way....

The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the...

This paper discusses whether the integration of international financial markets affects business cycle fluctuations. In the framework of a new open economy macro-model, we show that the link between financial openness and business cycle volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock....

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizing sticky-price model to analyze the consequences of international financial market integration for the propagation of asymmetric productivity shocks in a monetary union. The model implies that business cycle volatility is higher...

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

The paper is intended to explore the prospective direction of structural adjustment in eastern Germany in the light of recent developments. The authors do argue that the Mezzogiorno-picture, a completely de-industrialized region between the Elbe- and the Oder-river, is not convincing. In the...

There have always been fluctuations of production, employment, and prices in economic history. A lot of strenuous work and intellectual efforts have been put into the study of these fluctuations. Huge amounts of time series data have been collected and indicators have been compiled to determine...

How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing "lessons learned" in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign "doom-loop"...

In this paper we analyze the relationship between gravity variables and f.o.b. export unit values using Hungarian firm-product-destination data. By taking firm-product level selection into account we show that export unit values increase with distance even for particular firm-product level...