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New evidence, old puzzles: technology shocks and labor market dynamics

Balleer, Almut - 2009

Can the standard search-and-matching labor market model replicate the business cycle fluctuations of the job finding rate and the unemployment rate? In the model, fluctuations are prominently driven by productivity shocks which are commonly interpreted as technology shocks. I estimate different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265223

International transmission of financial stress: Evidence from a GVAR

Dovern, Jonas; van Roye, Björn - 2013

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316033

Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

Döpke, Jörg; Chagny, Odile - 2001

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260457

Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany

Döpke, Jörg - 2000

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260630

Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - eine Anmerkung

Meier, Carsten-Patrick - 2000

This note shows that German real GDP follows a trend-stationary process. Both tests which have trend-stationarity as the alternative hypothesis as well as tests that have it under the null hypothesis prefer the trend-stationary model. Explicit consideration of breaks in the trend is not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265453

What drives endogenous growth in the United States?

Wesselbaum, Dennis - 2010

This paper estimates whether learning-by-doing effects or cleansing effects of recessions drive the endogenous component of productivity in the United States. Using Bayesian estimation techniques we find that external and internal learning-by-doing effects dominate. We find no evidence for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270032

A simple decomposition of the variance of output growth across countries

Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2011

employment to cyclical output growth across a panel of countries. Measured productivity contributes more to the cycle in Europe … and Japan than in the United States. Employment contributes the largest proportion of the cycle in Europe and the United … States (but not Japan), which is inconsistent with the idea that higher levels of employment protection in Europe dampen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274432

Evaluating the search and matching model with sticky wages

Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2010

Several authors have proposed staggered wage bargaining as a way to introduce sticky wages into search and matching models while preserving individual rationality. I evaluate the quantitative implications of such an approach. I feed through a series of estimated shocks from US data into a search...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274434

Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models

Döpke, Jörg - 1999

Probit models are employed to evaluate leading indicators for Germany's recessions. The predictive power of leading indicators is found to be lower than assumed in previous studies. Although, monetary variables provide the best predictive power for recessions, survey data and order inflows show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275291

Abnehmende Bedeutung der Lagerinvestitionen für den Konjunkturverlauf?

Döpke, Jörg; Langfeldt, Enno - 1997

With the widespread application of inventory control Systems in industry and trade and a fast growing Services sector the influence of inventory changes on the business sector should become less important over time. However, the empirical eyidence for Germany in the period 1970-1994 shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275352