This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and … their forecast performance. The evaluation employs Granger-causality tests, stability tests and historical out …-of-sample forecasts. On balance the information content of money appears to be rather limited. An improvement of the forecast is confined …

can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons …

betrachtet. Es zeigt sich, daß eine Reihe von Indikatoren für eine kurzfristige Prognose geeignet sind, daß aber eine Prognose … forecast horizons or for the prediction of turning points …

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

Die starken Preissteigerungen für Benzin in den letzten 2 Jahren sind häufig auf mangelnden Wettbewerb zurückgeführt …

depends on the consumers' rational price expectations from the recent past. By implication, demand responses are more elastic … for price increases than for price decreases and thus firms face a downward-sloping demand curve that is kinked at the … consumers' reference price. Firms adjust their prices flexibly in response to variations in this demand curve, in the context of …

A shortcoming of most empirical studies on aggregate exports is their exclusive focus on the demand side. Moreover, the … effect of globalization is often neglected leading to implausibly high income elasticities. This paper models export demand … relationships are found and identified as export supply and demand. Overidentifying restrictions derived from economic theory are …

Ukrainian exports can be explained by standard demand theory in the long run. Using the Johansen procedure the data do …