This article develops the first granular database on daily real-time inflation rates and output. Four different European forecast sources and three computation methods are applied to calculate those daily data. These are used in two types of monetary policy rules, for three different interest...

We estimate monetary policy reaction functions with threshold effects for the Deutsche Bundesbank using a real-time data set. Estimates based on the deviation of inflation from the Bundesbank's inflation target as threshold variable suggest a switch to a stronger output gap response in the...

This paper shows how to estimate forecast uncertainty about future short-term interest rates by combining a time-varying Taylor rule with an unobserved components model of economic fundamentals. Using this model I separate interest rate uncertainty into economically meaningful components that...

Using real-time data I estimate out-of-sample forecast uncertainty about the Federal Funds Rate. Combining a Taylor rule with a model of economic fundamentals I disentangle economically interpretable components of forecast uncertainty: uncertainty about future economic conditions and uncertainty...

Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. This paper proposes embeddings - a language model trained using machine learning techniques - to locate words and documents in a multidimensional vector space. To accomplish this, we...

The statement institutions matter has become commonplace. A precondition for it to be supported by empirical evidence, is, however, that institutions are measurable. Glaeser et al. (2004) attacks many studies claiming to prove the relevance of institutions for economic development as being based...

I argue that the rule of law consists of many dimensions and that much information is lost when variables proxying for these dimensions are simply aggregated. I draw on the most important innovations from various legal traditions to propose a concept of the rule of law likely to find general...

In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 19 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members' forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the ranges with the...

In this research paper accuracies (percentage errors, MAPE) of different procedures (growth, ARIMA(X), exponential smoothing and deterministic trend models) in forecasting new passenger car registrations in Germany are presented. It is found that the Logistic Growth Model provides rather...