This paper studies the determinants of business cycles in small open economies and adds to the discussion about the changing nature of inflation dynamics. We estimate a series of VAR models for a set of six Asian emerging market economies, in which we identify a battery of domestic and global...

We study the role of monetary policy for the dynamics of U.S. mortgage debt, which is the largest component of household indebtedness. A timevarying parameter VAR model allows us to study the variation in the mortgage debt sensitivity to monetary policy. We find that an identically-sized policy...

This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments...

We use a New Keynesian model that features rational and non-rational households. Assuming that both the fraction of rational households and the expectations formation process are uncertain from the perspective of the central bank, we derive robust optimal discretionary monetary policy in a...

Using a randomized controlled trial in a 2018 survey of a representative sample of the German population, we study whether providing information about the European Central Bank's (ECB) inflation record in comparison to its inflation target affects people's trust in the central bank. In the...

We examine the effects of federal funds target rate changes and all types of FOMC communication on European and Pacific equity market returns using a GARCH model. We show that both types of news have a significant statistical and economic impact, but that the effects are not symmetric: target...

We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic announcements on Argentine money, stock and foreign exchange markets' returns and volatility over the period 1998 to 2006 using a GARCH model. Firstly, we show that both types of news have a significant impact on all markets....

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Federal Funds target rate changes and FOMC communication on emerging equity market returns and volatility over the period 1998–2006. First, both types of news have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate changes are more...

This paper shows how to estimate forecast uncertainty about future short-term interest rates by combining a time-varying Taylor rule with an unobserved components model of economic fundamentals. Using this model I separate interest rate uncertainty into economically meaningful components that...

We explain changes in the Canadian target rate using macroeconomic variables and Bank of Canada (BOC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that BOC communication is...