This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting prospective comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the...

Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified...

We analyze the medium- and long-run effects of international integration of capital markets on specialization patterns of countries. For that purpose, we incorporate induced technical change into a Heckscher-Ohlin model with a continuum of final goods. This provides a comprehensive theory that...