Seit Einführung der neuen Schuldenregel hat sich die Finanzlage der deutschen Bundesländer deutlich verbessert. Nach unseren Berechnungen mit dem Aggregierten Quotierungsverfahren konnten die meisten Länder ihre strukturellen Budgetdefizite abbauen und im Jahr 2017 schon 14 Länder...

Nach den Berechnungen der Autoren mit dem vom Stabilitätsrat verwendeten Aggregierten Quotierungsverfahren (AQV) konnten im Jahr 2017 schon 14 Bundesländer strukturell mindestens ausgeglichene Haushalte erzielen. In der aktuellen Niedrigzinsphase überzeichnet das AQV jedoch die erzielten...

This paper looks at the intergovernmental mechanisms by which federalism operates in Australia, notably the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), Commonwealth Grants Commission (CGC), Australian Loan Council (ALC). These three main systems contribute to improve Australian intergovernmental...

This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments...

Monetary policy increasingly relies on steering market expectations about future policy. This paper identifies a monetary policy news shock based on a VAR model. A monetary news shock is equivalent to new information about the Fed's future monetary policy becoming available today. One example of...

We explain changes in the Canadian target rate using macroeconomic variables and Bank of Canada (BOC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that BOC communication is...

This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to...

We explain changes in the federal funds target rate using macroeconomic variables and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that...

In this paper, we explore the interest rate setting behavior of newly appointed central bank governors. We use the Kuttner and Posen (2010) sample, which covers 15 OECD countries, and estimate an augmented Taylor (1993) rule for the period 1974-2008. We find, first, that newly appointed...

In this paper, we test whether public preferences for price stability (obtained from the Eurobarometer survey) are actually reflected in the interest rates set by eight central banks. We estimate augmented Taylor (1993) rules for the period 1976-1993 using the dynamic GMM estimator. We find,...