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News, Noise, and Fluctuations : An Empirical Exploration

Blanchard, Olivier; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Lorenzoni, Guido - 2009

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014206510

Lumpy Investment in Dynamic General Equilibrium

Bachmann, Ruediger; Engel, Eduardo; Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2006

-2000 sample, the initial response of investment to a productivity shock with responses in the top quartile is 60% higher than the … shock. Conversely, a slowdown after a boom can lead to a long lasting investment slump, which is unresponsive to policy … smoothing in the investment response to aggregate shocks. The remaining 40% is explained by general equilibrium forces. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014057432

Noisy Business Cycles

Angeletos, Marios; La'O, Jennifer - 2009

aggregate productivity shocks, taste shocks, and - potentially - shocks to monopoly power. We show how the dispersion of … negative short-run response of employment to productivity shocks; (iii) imply that productivity shocks explain only a small …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014207415

Quantifying Confidence

Angeletos, George-Marios - 2014

We enrich workhorse macroeconomic models with a mechanism that proxies strategic uncertainty and that manifests itself as waves of optimism and pessimism about the short-term economic outlook. We interpret this mechanism as variation in confidence and show that it helps account for many salient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039832

The Safety Trap

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2016

In this paper we provide a model of the macroeconomic implications of safe asset shortages. In particular, we discuss the emergence of a deflationary safety trap equilibrium with high risk premia. It is an acute form of a liquidity trap, in which the shortage of a specific form of assets, safe...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006687

The network origins of aggregate fluctuations

Acemoglu, Daron; Carvalho, Vasco M.; Ozdaglar, Asuman E.; … - 2011

possibility of “cascade effects” whereby productivity shocks to a sector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009489113

The Network Origins of Large Economic Downturns

Acemoglu, Daron - 2013

-trivial inter-sectoral input-output linkages that is subject to thin-tailed productivity shocks may exhibit deep recessions as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079041

Demographics and automation

Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual - 2018

from country industry variation in the adoption of robots. Our model also implies that the productivity implications of … aging are ambiguous when technology responds to demographic change, but we should expect productivity to increase and labor …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011820230

The race between machine and man : implications of technology for growth, factor shares and employment

Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual - 2016

We examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks, in which labor has a comparative advantage, can be created. In a static version where capital is fixed and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573063

Localized and Biased Technologies : Atrkinson and Stiglitz's New View, Induced Innovations, and Directed Technological Change

Acemoglu, Daron - 2015

This paper revisits the important ideas proposed by Atkinson and Stiglitz's seminal 1969 paper on technological change. After linking these ideas to the induced innovation literature of the 1960s and the more recent directed technological change literature, it explains how these three...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033817