As a result of the early repayment programme launched in the autumn of 2011, buying demand for several billions of euros arose on the side of domestic banks. The purchase of such amounts in the foreign exchange market would have alone contributed to a substantial weakening of the forint;...

This study briefly presents the tools the Magyar Nemzeti Bank uses to estimate and interpret the yield curve, and to analyse the underlying reasons of yield changes. The first part of the study compares the yields of government securities and those of interbank and interest rate swap markets,...

The Law on Fiscal Responsibility adopted late 2008 is a new element in Hungarian fiscal policy, although not without precedent. Under the law, the Parliament and the Government limit themselves to prevent high fiscal deficits and a further increase in public indebtedness, experienced in recent...

In this article, the average expenditure of Hungary is compared to that of the other three Visegrád countries. In Hungary, this expenditure is higher by 10 % of GDP, but one-quarter of this is attributable to higher interest expenses, and one-third to revenue factors which simultaneously...

Over the past decade, increasing public debt has become one of the most important problems for the Hungarian economy, significantly constraining the room for manoeuvre for fiscal policy and in some periods even calling into question its sustainability. As a percentage of GDP, gross public debt...

If compliance with a fiscal rule in certain periods requires procyclical fiscal policy, it means that fiscal policy does not mitigate the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, but rather may amplify them, i.e. it is unable to perform its stabilisation function. On the basis of the analysis of...

For several years after 2001, fiscal policy in Hungary was characterised by expansion, boosting the economy through several channels. As a consequence, while the global economy slowed down temporarily between 2001 and 2003, economic growth remained stable at high levels in Hungary. Due to fiscal...

Tax evasion reduces the efficiency of the economy as unequal opportunities of tax evasion leads to an inefficient distribution of resources. In Hungary, based on data for 2005–2006, tax evasion resulted in a transfer of 7.9 per cent of GDP from taxpayers to tax evaders. Following measures...

This article gives an overview of the national fiscal rules in force or recommended for introduction in the Visegrád countries. In the article, we review the various potential elements of the regulation framework, in particular the debt rule as a limit, the balance target, the expenditure rule...

Developments in the headline budget balance are distorted by temporary factors. The most significant of these factors are the business cycle and creative accounting. Adequate information and estimates are available, allowing us to filter out these factors using a so-called adjustment for...