Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit...

Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit...

In this paper UK data is used to compare two potential sources of information regarding market uncertainty about future short interest rates. One is the so-called risk-neutral density function (RND) derived from interest rate option prices, the other is the distribution of bids submitted to an...

The focus of this paper is on the use of staff policy recommendations in central banks. Based on the responses to a recent survey conducted by the Bank of International Settlements, the paper tries to answer two questions. (1) How (to what extent) do central bank decision-makers make use of...

Since in recent years a relatively liquid and transparent market of government securities has emerged in Hungary, it seems straightforward for the monetary authority to try to extract information about market expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation from the prices of these...

The focus of this paper is on the use of staff policy recommendations in central banks. Based on the responses to a recent survey conducted by the Bank of International Settlements, the paper tries to answer two questions. (1) How (to what extent) do central bank decision-makers make use of...