In this paper we investigate the effect of central bank transparency on survey forecasts. Similar to Ehrmann et al. (2010), we find that greater transparency can reduce the degree of disagreement across individual forecasters and it can also improve the forecasting performance of survey...

In this paper we estimate risk-neutral probability density functions from EUR/HUF currency options using the Malz (1997) method. First, we compare different option-based indicators. We present so-called 'shortcut' indicators, i.e. indicators that can be calculated directly, without the...

In this paper we apply the Early Warning System methodology to ten Central and Eastern European Countries to find useful sets of indicators which could predict macroeconomic and financial imbalances. We argue that finding such indicators is crucial in the current monetary policy framework...

We present a new general-equilibrium behavioural microsimulation model designed to assess long-run macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of reforms to the tax and transfer system. General-equilibrium feedback effects are simulated by embedding microsimulation in a parsimonious macro model of a...

We show that in both time-dependent and state-dependent sticky price models, prices of sticky price products (i.e. whose price changes rarely) contain more information about medium term inflation developments than those of flexible price products (i.e. whose price changes frequently). We do this...

This paper uses a structural factor model to analyze sectoral heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy in Hungary. Monetary shocks are identified with sign restrictions. The impulse responses of aggregate variables are similar to the findings of previous VAR based studies. The sectoral...

This paper presents a variance decomposition method - factor analysis with Procrustes rotation - that is capable of separating the global, regional and idiosyncratic components of various financial market indicators. The method is applied to indicators of five key financial markets: sovereign...

The paper investigates the impact of foreign currency lending in the Hungarian corporate sector on real investment. Using a rich micro dataset we consider two questions. First we test whether foreign currency (FX) lending – by lowering user cost and easing liquidity constraints – contributed...

It is well documented in the literature that identified vector autoregression (VAR) models often produce puzzling results when the effect of unexpected monetary policy movements is estimated. Many authors find that raising interest rate generates protracted appreciation of the exchange rate (the...

The aim of this paper is to study preference heterogeneity in monetary policy committees of inflation-targeting (IT) countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during the period 2005–2010. It employs (individual) voting records of the Monetary Council of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central...