Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...

The decision to introduce a national FuelWatch scheme provides a timely case study of `evidence-based- policy' making in Australia. The government based its decision on econometric work by the ACCC who refuse to release the data. They claim that their analysis is robust because it has been...

Using data supplied by InformedSources I find additional flaws in the ACCC analysis of FuelWatch. First, the drop in petrol prices that is so visually convincing in the ACCC chart S1 is in fact an artifact of the method of data construction and can be attributed primarily to increases in prices...

This note provides evidence of neglected seasonality in the "seasonally adjusted" Australian national accounts

A survey of 1800 small and medium sized businesses is used to shed light on the number of workers covered by minimum wage legislation in Australia. Estimates are obtained and reported of the employment effects of changing the way in which minimum wages are set in Australia.

This paper examines the prospects for Australia meeting the Governments target to bring unemployment down to 5 per cent by the year 2000. Particular attention is paid to the effect of the business cycle on unemployment.

Theory cannot provide an unambiguous prediction regarding the economic effects of employment protection laws. Such laws confer benefits on employees and shift the labour supply curve to the right. But they also impose costs on business and therefore shift the labour demand curve to the left. The...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the Australian Industry Group / PricewaterhouseCoopers Performance of Manufacturing Index (Ai-PMI) as a tool for analysis. Particular interest focuses on the issue of how useful it is as an early signal of Australian business cycle turning points.

In this paper I address the following questions. - Has the business cycle become longer and shallower? And why? - How stabilizing is monetary policy. In answering these questions I summarize recent research undertaken by Adrian Pagan and myself that formalizes the procedures developed by Burns...

The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of...