We propose new specifications that explicitly account for information noise in the input data of bankruptcy hazard models. The specifications are motivated by a theory of modeling credit risk with incomplete information (Duffie and Lando [2001]). Based on over 2 million firm-months of data...

In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process which follows a first-order Markov chain. We first illustrate the...

This paper studies the causal effect of education on income uncertainty using a broad measure of income which encompasses unemployment risk. To accomplish this, the variance of residuals from a Mincer-type income regression is decomposed into unobserved heterogeneity (known to the individuals...

Using firm-level panel data collected in Vietnam bi-annually from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines whether innovation is persistent among small firms in Vietnam. The empirical results obtained from dynamic random effect probit and dynamic random effect ordered probit show that the innovation...

This paper studies the causal effect of education on income uncertainty using a broad measure of income which encompasses unemployment risk. To accomplish this, the variance of residuals from a Mincer-type income regression is decomposed into unobserved heterogeneity (known to the individual...

We examine the dissent voting record of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its first decade. Probit estimates indicate the impact of career experience on dissent voting is negligible, whereas the impact of forecast inflation is pronounced. In addition to finding a role for...

We consider the problem of estimating and decomposing wage differentials in the presence of unobserved worker, firm, and match heterogeneity. Controlling for these unobservables corrects omitted variable bias in previous studies. It also allows us to measure the contribution of unmeasured...

There is a renewed interest in whether land reforms can contribute to market development in Africa and whether land reforms can be pro-poor. This paper uses unique household panel data from Tigray region in Ethiopia to assess the impact of the 1998 low-cost land registration and certification...

Swarna Jayanti Gram Swarojgar Yojona (SGSY), a government sponsored micro credit programme of India, has been designed to ameliorate income poverty among the rural poor, particularly women, through human capital development and strengthening female agency. In this backdrop the basic objectives...