This is the first study that employs option pricing model to measure the position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios, which covers moment information as the proxy for crash risk. We show that high interest-rate currencies are exposed to higher position-unwinding risk than low...

We show that the profitability of currency carry trades can be understood as the compensation for exchange rate misalignment risk based on the rare disastrous model of exchange rates (Farhi and Gabaix, 2008). It explains over 97% of the cross-sectional excess returns and dominates other...

The chaos theory assumes that the returns dynamics are not normally distributed and more complex approaches have to be used to study these time series. In fact, the Fractal Market Hypothesis assumes that the returns dynamics are not independent of the investors’ attitudes and represent the...

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow...

The aim of this study is to show that financial liberalization, as a determinant of financial development, can stimulate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth. Two distinct components have been analyzed. The first one is a theoretical component in which we...

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the exchange rate misalignments for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand before the currency crisis. By employing the sticky-price monetary exchange rate model in the environment of vector error-correction, the results indicate that...

Using a dataset on bilateral trade flow at the industry-level from 1980 to 2006, I determine the influence of the industry financial composition on the export flow between a developing country, Pakistan, and its trading partners. Firms undertaking exporting activities may need to fund their...

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such...

The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, they are very few alternative mechanisms. This situation reflects a simple diagnosis. At the level of the whole euro...

I use credit/GDP ratio to construct stylized credit cycles at global and regional levels over 1980-2010. Their average duration is between 12 and 15 years and for all the regions there is “a ceiling” and “a floor” curbing the amplitude of credit cycles. They are also largely...