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General correcting formulae for forecasts
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243
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Solution of the Ellsberg paradox by means of the principle of uncertain future
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first … an uniform solution of the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, of the Allais paradox, risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835901
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Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587482
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A non-zero dispersion leads to the non-zero bias of mean
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013
A theorem of existence of the non-zero restrictions for the mean of a function on a finite numerical segment at a non-zero dispersion of the function is proved. The theorem has an applied character. It is aimed to be used in the probability theory and statistics and further in economics. Its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113980
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Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей. Дискретный случай
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
The theorem of existence of the ruptures in the probability scale has been proved for a discrete case. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008526960
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Theorem of existence of ruptures for mean values on finite numerical segments. Discrete case
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
The proof of the theorem of existence of the ruptures, namely the proof of maximality, is improved. The theorem may be used in economics and explain the well-known problems such as Allais’ paradox. Illustrated examples of ruptures are presented.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009403452
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Theorem of existence of ruptures in probability scale. Preliminary short version.
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
The theorems of existence of the ruptures have been proved. The ruptures can exist near the borders of finite intervals and of the probability scale. The theorems can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008574286
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Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей. II.
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proved. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577644
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Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей
Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
A theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proven. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596366
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Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Zimbabwe
Bonga, Wellington Garikai - 2019
businesses use information around them to form judgements about what might happen in the future. The rise in uncertainty might be … measure macroeconomic uncertainty in Zimbabwe, using stock market indices - industrial index and mining index - for the period … 2010M1 to 2019M3. Prevalence of macroeconomic uncertainty has been traced from the stock market index trend and stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866688