In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it...

In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it...

In the Chinese urban data, there is a stronger relationship between consumer behavior (measured by consumption income ratio or cy ratio) and consumer confidence (measured by Consumer Confidence Index or CCI), which implies expectation about the future plays an important role in domestic demand....

In this note, we revisit the univariate unobserved-component (UC) model of US GDP by relaxing the traditional random-walk assumption of the permanent component. Since our general UC model is unidentified, we investigate the upper bound of the contribution of the transitory component, and find it...

Our structural VAR shows that the new business formation in U.S. data has similar positive co-movement pattern as common aggregate variables in response to a favorable anticipated shock about technology. However, incorporating �firm dynamics into Jaimovich and Rebelo's (Jaimovich and Rebelo,...

This paper introduces sectorial heterogeneity in TFPs in a growth model to generate new insights on trade, sectorial reallocation, and economic growth. The rate of overall economic growth in this model is a simple average of sectorial growth in a closed economy, but will depend on trade...

We present an analytically tractable general equilibrium business cycle model that features micro-level investment lumpiness. We prove an exact irrelevance proposition which provides sufficient conditions on preferences, technology, and the fixed cost distribution such that any positive upper...