The standalone structural exchange rate risk depends on the product of the future foreign currency earning and the change in the exchange rate. Its Value-at-Risk (VaR) implying an extremely high survival probability, usually exceeding 99.9%, is used in practice to determine its economic capital....

Many models in economics involve probabilistic choices where each decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the value of each alternative as a random variable, the analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities, that is, the probability for an alternative to...

Many models in economics involve probabilistic choices where each decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the value of each alternative as a random variable, the analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities, that is, the probability for an alternative to...

Unanticipated shocks could lead to instability, which is reflected in statistically significant changes in distributions of random variables. Changes in the conditional moments of stationary variables are predictable. We provide a framework based on a statistic for the Sample Generalized...

In this study, relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

Abstract: In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive...

Unanticipated shocks could lead to instability, which is reflected in statistically significant changes in distributions of independent Gaussian random variables. Changes in the conditional moments of stationary variables are predictable. We provide a framework based on a statistic for the...

In this paper, we investigate whether the currency substitution can affect the exchange rate uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Considering the whole time period 1987M01-2006M12 as well as thesub-periods 1987M01-1999M12 and 2001M03-2006M12 for sensitivity analysis, our estimation results...