In this study, we investigate forecasting performance of various univariate and multivariate models in predicting inflation for different horizons. We design our forecast experiment for the post-oil boom years of 2010-2014 and compare forecasting ability of the different models with that of...

In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in the national economy. For that, we employ astructural VAR models and estimate interdependencies among different economic variables. Initial data analysis of macroeconomic...

This paper has attempted to estimate the J-curve phenomenon for Azerbaijan using quarterly industry-level data over the period 2000-2009. A weighted average of the production indexes of Azerbaijan’s four major trading partners, which account for 70% of Azerbaijan’s total trade turnover, was...

Twenty years have passed since the breakdown of the Soviet Union, and it is time to draw a concluding line for monetary policy efficiency in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). We propose a comprehensive treatment of the subject for nine members of the CIS for the period of 2000-2009....

This paper examines the degree of capital mobility in the countries of the Caucasus. We employ a simple model developed in the seminal paper by Feldstein and Horioka (1980). First, we estimate the model using conventional time-series econometrics in order to capture the short-run dynamics. Then,...

This paper seeks empirical evidence for the J-curve and the Marshal-Lerner condition for Azerbaijan. The results suggest that a real depreciation of the Azerbaijani Manat would cause a decline in the balance of trade in the short-run and an increase in the long-run. When including the prices of...

This paper proposes a comparative analysis of the federal funds rate. The analysis is based on the results of an empirical study, conducted using the econometrics of Vector Auto Regressions. The results are compared across two time periods: 1960-1979 and 1983-2002, the intervals representing the...