This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

A decade of major political, institutional, economic and societal changes is challenging the Mediterranean Area: in a more and more globalized Europe the primary sectors of Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs) are largely influenced by recent trends. The resulting exposure of Mediterranean...