In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross-value added (GVA) and its sectoral sub-components at the regional level. We are probably the first who evaluate sectoral forecasts at the regional level using a huge data set at quarterly frequency to investigate this issue. With an...

Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...

We analyze the predictive content of the mortgage spread for U.S. economic activity. We find that the spread contains predictive power for real GDP and industrial production. Furthermore, it outperforms the term spread and Gilchrist– Zakrajsek spread in a real-time forecasting exercise....

A short article which motivates the use of a fan chart in the communication of forecasts, with special emphasis on inflation forecasts. A fan chart for Maltese HICP inflation projections is built, using the history of forecast errors.

This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...

It is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credits and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data and...

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

This document compares the proprieties of different empirical methodologies to estimate the output gap and the potential output (non-observable variables of interest to the design of monetary policy and macroeconomic analysis) using Dominican Republic as a case of study. The output gap and...

In Part One of this paper we use the harmonic analogy of a musical octave to analyze mathematic ratios of U.S. real GNP. These ratios are generated by bringing together figures for U.S. real GNP over intervals of time – “spreads of years” – as numerator and denominator in a single...

We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA model; 2) AR model estimated by the Kalman filter; 3) model that explains Macedonian GDP as a function of the foreign demand; 4) small structural model that links GDP components...