This paper provides new insights into expectation-driven cycles by estimating a structural VAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. We use survey-based expectations of the unemployment rate to measure expectations of future developments in economic activity. We find that the...

The Taylor hypothesis is the conjecture that the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the 2008-present downturn have been caused by loose monetary policy during 2002-2006. According to the Taylor hypothesis the Fed deviated from well-know rules of monetary policy-making over this period, and this...

To what extent can monetary and financial crises and cycles be explained through economic theories? This paper is aimed at highlighting why a reliance on economic theories may be necessary given certain flaws which have been revealed from the recent Financial Crisis. Namely, that economic and...

A close examination of the MENA region economies reveals a number of fundamental sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. These include economic factors such as exchange rate instability, large public debt, current account deficits, and escalation of inflation. The political factors such as...

A standard two-sector sticky price model with flexibly priced durables depicts negative co-movement between durables and non-durables after a monetary policy shock, which is at odds with the empirical evidence. This paper proposes a new channel, non-separable preferences with a small wealth...

This paper re-examines the out-of-sample predictive power of interest rate spreads when the short-term nominal rates have been stuck at the zero lower bound and the Fed has used unconventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that the predictive power of some interest rate spreads have...

In this paper, several flaws of the basic no-capital/labor-only New Keynesian model are discussed. Some flaws were left undiscovered because mass of varieties n in Dixit-Stiglitz aggregator is often considered as not affecting overall outcomes. Only when n=1 would ordinary results of the basic...

This paper compares the role of macroeconomic and sector-specific factors in price movements for China and India, taking into account the features unique to developing economies. We find that fluctuations in the aggregated prices in China are more persistent than the underlying disaggregated...

This paper develops an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on New-Keynesian micro-foundations. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exporters, foreign capital inflow in terms of...

This paper investigates the possibility of conducting an unconventional monetary policy of Quantitative easing (QE) at high interest rates using the example and experience of Russia. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has raised the key interest rate on three occasions during the 7...