In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

After deriving a model describing the law of evolution of innovators and imitators the article focuses on their relationships under two different scenarios: prey-predator, in which innovators are regarded as preys, and competing species. Analytic results show that among the feasible equilibria...

Markov chain theory is proving to be a powerful approach to bootstrap highly nonlinear time series. In this work we provide a method to estimate the memory of a Markov chain (i.e. its order) and to identify its relevant states. In particular the choice of memory lags and the aggregation of...